Showing posts with label market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market. Show all posts

Monday, July 30, 2007

The question is with two hours and change until close, can we have a positive day?


The market again today has had a tough time getting a footing. Currently is up about 50 on the down and up about 6 on the s&p, those represent gains of about a half a percent. The big question though is can the market close strong or are we in for the bears taking control again late in the day and have a huge selloff like we saw Friday. Keep your fingers crossed!

Friday, July 27, 2007

Some song, different day, market down another 1%


Its always nice to see 6% of your wealth disappear in a week!

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Good news, the markets lose another 2%


So two days after losing 2%, the markets are down another 2%. All sectors, no safe havens. There are a number of problems, subprime seems to be spreading to all forms of credit with delinquenices in credit cards and home equity loans also rising, home builders are a total mess and to top it off earnings overall have not been good. It will be an interesting next quarter to see if the market can recover or if a slide continues.

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Markets down anywhere from 1% to 2% for the small cap index


As the year goes along, the positives for the market in my opinion continue to dwindle, housing continues to get worse and once the summer season ends typically housing sales slow anyway, poor credit appears to be beginning to spread from subprime which is a small sector to other areas of credit including credit cards. And finally, earnings seemed to have slowed even more. In my opinion, only one DOW 30 stock is truly undervalued and that is AIG. What sectors do I like going forward here, not many, I love finanicals but am concerned that the bad news is just starting. Bank of America at under 48 looks great on paper but I thought the same thing at 55, then 52, then 50. Housing, I thought Meritage (MTH) looked attractive 31-33, now its a shade under 22. Retail, Wet Seal is another that on paper looks nice, but I can see it going well below $5.22 as of right now with all the housing weakness. Parents are tightening the pocket books and clothes for teens is not a priority. Will retail see a bump with back to school and the holidays - possibly. The only real sector doing well for me is the deep sea drillers like Noble (NE) and Global Santa Fe (GSF). My Chinese stocks continue to perform as well. So what's my strategy at this point, I am going to hang tough in financials and look to buy value strategically when I can find it and thats getting tougher and tougher.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Weak Retail Sales + Housing Issues = Down Market!



Market as of noon EST is down 130 points or about 1%. Today is a broad decline and no sector really seems safe. Will this be a one day slide? The market is tough to figure right now, earnings are slowing, no real sign of any coming FED rate cut, inflation is on the high end, housing is in the toilet in many areas and retail sales are slowing and yet the market has had a run of about 7%. I think its time to really take a hard look at your portfolio and things you have made a pretty penny on that have gotten on the expensive side, probably time to take profits. Things that haven't had a run like Bank of America may be good buys at this level. Lowe's is another good example. Best Buy is looking more and more attractive. A stock like Intel that has enjoyed a nice run the last year to an up of over 20% may be one to consider unloading atleast in the short term.

I found it interesting atleast in the DOW that by PEG Ratio everything is fairly valued at this point.

Now, I will say in my opinion the retail numbers are hard to get a good read. Easter hit at an odd time, weather was little crazy with hot and cold in April. But so far, May has been hot and I believe that retailers in June will report strong numbers as people buy their summer clothes. Also, I suspect that housing numbers will improve as traditionally spring and summer are strong.

Wednesday, May 9, 2007

What the average person doesn't realize

People are all enthralled that the stock market has seemingly had a nice run, but here's the truth the S&P 500 is in bascially the same spot as it was back in 2000. The NASDAQ is basically in the same spot as 1997/1998. The DOW is only slightly higher than it was in 1999. This leads me to believe as I believe everything is cyclical that the market is due for a signifcant run in the next ten years.

Expect a late day market move

Today the FED speaks at 2:15 EST PM and the key question is, where is the fed leaning? The data as of late clearly shows a slowing US economy but also shows inflationary pressures above the Fed's comfort zone. I think it is clear the Fed will stand pat on interest rates this period, but I tend to think they may surprise with some verbage indicating there may be a future RATE INCREASE. This would most likely drive the market lower possibly to the tune of 2 to 3%. The Fed is clearly atleast to me more concerned about inflation and not growth. I will be interested to hear their verbage in their address. Pay attention to the market starting at about 2:15.

Friday, April 27, 2007

GDP slows to 1.4 percent, lowest in 4 years

It could get rocky today in the market with news GDP slowed to 1.4 percent.