Monday, April 16, 2007

Sirius Satellite - Is it time to buy?

When the news of Sirius buying XM first came out, Sirius sat at over $4/ps. Now the stock stands at a little over $3/ps. This tells me a few things, the masses don't believe Sirius can get approval to buy XM and Sirius may go bankrupt if they can't get the deal approved. Now, I too am skeptical that the deal will be approved but even if its not, the Sirius subscriber base continues to grow and as a Sirius subscriber I can tell you that the content on Sirius is superior to XM. Also, while it may seem like Satellite has been around forever, in company terms, it is like a newborn still. Much like cable in its early days, content is somewhat limited but I suspect 10 years from now, the content will be superior to anything on standard radio much like cable now. Imagine today only having local channels on tv. No Entourage, no Laguna Beach, etc. Also I suspect in ten years probably 7 in 10 people will have satellite radio. Is there the possibility the Sirius goes bankrupt? Yes, I would say maybe even 50/50 at this point. But I also look and I think at this point the stock has been hammered down to where the upside is relevant. I certainly wouldn't back up the truck here but I would consider investing 2 to 3% of your portfolio. So if you have some money that you can risk, I would consider Sirius (SIRI). No risk, no reward.

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