Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Stock market up about 1% today


So the recent turmoil saw us go from a high of about 1555 on the s&p to a low of about 1430. A loss of about 8.7%. We currently sit at 1491, still down about 4.2%. Now obviously many people are still down much more than 4%, I know I still stand down about 8%. Now that the doom and gloom has subsided, what is the reality here? Well, I for one am still not high on the financials, the homebuilders or retail. These are all big the last two days, some as much as 15 to 20%. I believe these bounces are what people call the "dead cat bounce". I think its a great time if you have not done so to take a short position in some of these companies like Flagstar (FBC) which has gone from under 10 to close to 12. This company is not adequatly addressing the credit problems as of yet and I for one believe this stock will be back under 10 very soon and could go all the way to 7. Give yourself some time with the option puts further out. Although I am a big fan of Bank of America, I believe this one too has far more downside risk right now than upside at back up close to 50. In terms of stocks to actually buy, I still love the drillers NE, RIG, GSF. Most are down 10% or so off their highs and these stocks are usually the last to rally. GOing forward, I suspect that on pullbacks I will start to shift more and more into Coca Cola (KO) which as it did in 1990 should benefit from the prevailing market conditions and strong global environment. At 55, it is a little steep short term, I think it can be had at 52. I think we are headed into more tough times as we go forward, slowing growth in the US combined with difficult credit conditions which I believe will spread from the consumer/household to the commerical/business sector. If you have a low threshold for stress, I would honestly tell you with this bounce to consider sitting on the sidelines in a money market/ savings which will give you about 5% which is better than losing money. Don't be mistaken, TOUGHER times are ahead. So that trip to Europe your planning or the big new plasma or the new five bedroom house even though its just you and your husband, you may want to wait.

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